CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Even in an era when the world seems perpetually “on fire,” business owners continue to adapt, persevere, and find ways to grow.
That was one of the reassuring takeaways from economist Alex Chausovsky, director of analytics and consulting for the Bundy Group. His recent presentation to the Textile Care Allied Trades Association, “Economic and Policy Update: What to Expect in Late 2025 and Beyond,” offered clarity for leaders trying to chart their course through a volatile global economy.
For owners and operators of laundromats, wash-dry-fold (WDF) services, and related manufacturers and distributors, the message was clear: the coming year will require planning for multiple scenarios, communicating constantly with partners, and controlling the controllables.
THE BIG PICTURE: U.S. STILL LEADS BUT COMPLEXITY REIGNS
Despite political noise and global upheaval, the U.S. remains the world’s dominant economic force. Its 2025 GDP of roughly $30.3 trillion dwarfs China’s $19.5 trillion economy. While China’s growth rate is higher (4.5–5% compared to 2–2.5% in the U.S.), Chausovsky stressed that the idea of America being “overtaken” is unfounded.
“Even with China’s faster expansion, they’re not positioned to surpass the U.S. anytime soon,” he says. “What we’re seeing instead is a multipolar world — several competing centers of power, rather than a single dominant one.”
That reality includes not only the U.S., China and the European Union, but also “free agents” like India, Turkey and Brazil that align strategically depending on the issue. Add to that the “tech superpowers” — companies such as Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon and Apple — whose revenues and energy consumption rival those of entire nations, and the global stage becomes even more complex.
For small-business owners, the takeaway is this: volatility is the new normal, and it’s not going away.
“We’re moving from uncertainty to complexity,” Chausovsky says. “That means planning for multiple possible futures, not just one forecasted path.”
He invoked a concept used by military strategists — VUCA, short for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity — to describe today’s business environment. “That’s the world we’re living in,” he says. “You can’t eliminate it, but you can prepare for it.”
TARIFFS, TRADE AND THE PUSH FOR PROTECTIONISM
Much of the recent turbulence in U.S. commerce stems from the reemergence of tariffs and unilateral trade actions under the current administration. While the use of tariffs is hardly new, Chausovsky notes that President Trump’s approach in his second term has been more direct and less reliant on congressional backing than his first.
Policies enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), for instance, have allowed for sweeping executive decisions affecting imported goods — ranging from steel and aluminum to solar panels and electric vehicles. These moves aim to slow China’s economic momentum and protect U.S. manufacturing, but they also risk alienating key trading partners like Canada, Mexico, Brazil and India.
A pending Supreme Court case could soon determine whether such unilateral tariffs are constitutional. A reversal, Chausovsky warns, “could open Pandora’s box” over how to handle billions of dollars already collected in tariff revenue.
Still, the real-world impact so far has been less severe than many feared. While the effective tariff rate peaked at around 30% earlier this year, the actual rate paid by businesses has averaged closer to 9%. Companies have absorbed roughly half those costs themselves, foreign exporters have lowered prices to preserve U.S. market share, and only about one-third of tariff costs have been passed on to consumers.
For laundromat operators, equipment distributors, and chemical suppliers importing parts or products, that offers some relief — but not immunity.
“The cost of doing business will continue to creep upward,” Chausovsky says, urging companies to review supplier contracts and shop for better input costs wherever possible.
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES: A SLOW BURN
After peaking near 9% in 2022, inflation has stabilized at about 3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but far from crisis territory. Chausovsky expects inflation to hover between 3.5% and 4.5% through 2026, influenced by tariffs, energy costs and labor pressures.
“The tariffs are a slow-moving force,” he notes. “It takes nine to 18 months for their full effect to work through the supply chain.”
The Fed, for its part, has begun modest rate cuts, signaling a move from restrictive to neutral monetary policy. But Chausovsky doesn’t see those cuts as enough to spark a full-blown growth surge. Rates need to fall below 3% to be truly stimulative, he says, and until then, we’re more likely to tread water than accelerate.
THE ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL: A POLICY BRIGHT SPOT
Not all recent policy changes have been headwinds. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July, includes several small-business-friendly tax provisions that could make a real difference — particularly the restoration of 100% accelerated depreciation and retroactive deductions for domestic R&D spending.
For laundromat owners planning major reinvestments — like replacing washers and dryers, expanding square footage, or adding automation — this means those expenditures could be fully deductible in the year they occur.
“This is one of the most complicated pieces of tax legislation ever to be produced by Congress,” Chausovsky says. “There are over 80 instances in this bill where it says that ‘the Commerce Secretary shall dot, dot, dot,’ which means that some of the laws aren’t even finalized yet. But I can also tell you that the low-hanging fruit of this act is clearly the addition of the domestic R&D expenditures.”
He urged business owners to consult tax professionals familiar with the new law to ensure they capture all eligible benefits.
THE REAL ECONOMY: GROWTH AT CRUISE SPEED
Despite global turmoil and political theater, the U.S. economy continues to expand, with real GDP up 2.1% year-over-year through mid-2025.
“The data does not support that we’re either in recession or are imminently heading for one,” according to Chausovky. “The data says that we are actually growing, roughly speaking, at the average growth rate that we’ve seen over the last 20 years.”
However, some sectors and income groups thrive while others lag. Consumer spending remains strong, but primarily among the top 20% of earners. For lower- and middle-income households, spending has merely kept pace with inflation.
On the business-to-business side, growth has been tepid. The U.S. Industrial Production Index — a measure of manufacturing and industrial activity — has risen only 0.4% in two years. In other words, the industrial economy is “moving sideways,” neither contracting nor surging.
For the textile care sector, which relies on steady demand from equipment manufacturers, chemical suppliers and linen processors, this “sideways” trend underscores the need for efficiency and agility rather than rapid expansion.
Check back Thursday for the conclusion
Have a question or comment? E-mail our editor Bruce Beggs at [email protected].
